Dallas, TX — A seismic shift in the 2026 Texas Democratic U.S. Senate primary has unsettled party operatives and raised questions about the viability of one of the party’s most visible progressive figures. According to a new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey released January 15, 2026, State Rep. James Talarico holds a nine-point lead over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett among likely Democratic primary voters. Talarico’s 47 percent support to Crockett’s 38 percent, with 15 percent undecided, signals a remarkable reversal from a December survey in which Crockett held a clear lead.
The poll results make the March 3 primary a focal point of Texas politics, with implications that stretch from the Democratic Party’s ideological battles to the broader contest for control of the U.S. Senate. At a time when Democrats hoped to topple the Republican stranglehold on statewide offices in Texas, internal party dynamics — and voter preferences — are now in sharper focus.
Shift in Voter Preferences
The Emerson poll, conducted January 10–12 with a sample of 413 likely Democratic primary voters, shows Talarico with broad support across key demographic groups. He leads among Hispanic voters at approximately 59 percent and among white voters at roughly 57 percent. Crockett, while commanding strong loyalty among Black Democratic voters — roughly 80 percent back her — struggles to match Talarico’s cross-sectional appeal.
In the same survey, gender splits emerged: men favored Talarico by a wide margin, while women’s support was nearly evenly divided between the two candidates. With a sizable share of Democratic voters still undecided, the primary remains fluid — but Talarico’s edge appears solid at the moment.
Who Are the Candidates?
Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) has been a dynamic presence within Texas Democratic politics since her election to Congress in 2022. Known for her unapologetic progressive rhetoric and criticism of Republican leadership, Crockett quickly became a national figure among the party’s left wing. Early polling suggested she was the Democratic favorite to win the Senate nomination, tapping into energy among urban progressives.
State Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) has taken a different approach. A former educator with a reputation for grassroots organizing and a comparatively moderate tone on certain issues, Talarico has worked to broaden his appeal beyond traditional Democratic strongholds. His Senate campaign, which has reportedly raised more than $13 million since its launch, emphasizes his capacity to unite diverse factions of the Democratic electorate.
Their differing campaign strategies are reflected in the latest figures: Crockett’s base remains deeply loyal, particularly among Black voters, while Talarico’s performance with Hispanic and white voters has propelled him ahead in the overall count.
Republican Landscape and Broader Stakes
While Democratic eyes are fixed on their own intraparty struggle, the Republican side of the Texas Senate race also reflects volatility. The Emerson poll indicates that Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton are locked in a tight GOP primary contest that could head to a runoff if neither candidate reaches a majority. Both Republicans remain below 30 percent support among likely GOP voters, underscoring ongoing divisions within the party.
Looking ahead to the general election, early hypothetical matchups show Republicans maintaining an advantage in this deeply red state, with Cornyn and Paxton both holding leads in polls against the Democratic contenders. Yet with the Democrats’ primary unsettled and a significant share of voters undecided, the path to victory for either party remains complex and contingent on turnout patterns in November.
Historical Context and Trends
Texas has not elected a Democratic U.S. Senator since 1988, a generational drought that has shaped the party’s approach to statewide races. In recent cycles, Democratic candidates have occasionally narrowed margins but fallen short of victory. Crockett’s initial strong polling reflected belief among some observers that her charisma and progressive credentials might overcome historical headwinds. However, the rapid swing in favor of Talarico suggests voters may prioritize electability in a conservative state.
The shifting polls also highlight internal debates within the Texas Democratic coalition over identity, strategy, and how to appeal to a statewide electorate that still tilts Republican. How the candidates navigate these conversations — and how they position themselves against Republican opponents — will likely shape the party’s fortunes in 2026 and beyond.
Conclusion: A Party at a Crossroads
From my vantage point, as someone who approaches politics through a constitutional conservative lens, the Democratic primary in Texas illustrates deeper tensions within that party: a clash between ideological purity and pragmatic calculation. Crockett’s progressive firebrand brand once made her the favorite among activists, but her apparent inability to expand beyond her base underscores the challenges of winning statewide in a state where conservative voters still outnumber Democrats. Talarico’s rise suggests that Democratic voters themselves may be responding to the cold arithmetic of electability rather than purely ideological factors.
Regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination, the general election will be an uphill battle for the party in Texas. Republicans remain firmly positioned, and the competitive primary may deplete resources that could have been directed toward a unified campaign against GOP nominees. If Democrats hope to flip a Senate seat for the first time in nearly four decades, they will need cohesion, strong turnout, and a candidate capable of bridging ideological divides.
For now, the story is not just Crockett versus Talarico — it is a reflection of Texas’s evolving political identity, where margins are tight, and electoral fortunes can turn on a single poll. Only voters themselves, and the campaigns that engage them between now and March, will determine which narrative prevails.
Sources:
Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey, January 15, 2026.
Texas Tribune reporting on Emerson poll results.
Newsmax analysis of Texas primary polling trends.
Black Enterprise – Crockett is behind in polls.